NFL Week 4 lines, picks: Lookahead spreads for Broncos ...

NFL: Let's talk about teasers (Week 4)

6-point Teasers

Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is:
The strategy listed above is very similar to a strategy introduced by Blackjack expert Stanford Wong. There's debate in Wong teasers over whether we should play games at exactly +3, whether home teams are more reliable than road teams, and whether we should care about the total. I did a deep dive into the mathematical details of those debates in my week 1 post.

Sweetheart Teasers

10-point teasers are often called "sweetheart" teasers. I'm grateful to u/hyperkinesis247 for inquiring if there's an edge regarding sweethearts. After looking at a small sample size in 2017-2019, I've decided to track 10-point teasers according to the following methodology:

Previous Results

I'm using the closing line at Bovada to determine which games qualify as Wong bets. (You can use sbrodds.com to verify I'm being honest.) The plays last week were:
Off-the-board spread 6 pt 10 pt
Chicago +3 Win
Green Bay +3 Win
Kansas City +3 Win
Los Angeles Rams +2 Win Win
Miami +3 Win
Minnesota +3 Win
New York Giants +3 Loss
Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. Including last week, the results since 2017 are listed below.
Teaser Year Team Record
6 pt 2017 +1½ thru +3 61-23 72.6%
6 pt 2018 +1½ thru +3 63-19 76.8%
6 pt 2019 +1½ thru +3 52-16 76.5%
6 pt 2020 +1½ thru +3 13-2 86.7%
6 pt 2017 -7½ thru -9 27-10 73.0%
6 pt 2018 -7½ thru -9 16-9 64.0%
6 pt 2019 -7½ thru -9 17-7 70.8%
6 pt 2020 -7½ thru -9 6-1 85.7%
10 pt 2017 +1½ thru +2½ 22-1 95.7%
10 pt 2018 +1½ thru +2½ 24-5 82.8%
10 pt 2019 +1½ thru +2½ 23-4 85.2%
10 pt 2020 +1½ thru +2½ 4-0 100.0%
The chart above counts pushes as losses. You should strongly consider betting at a book that has a "pushes reduce" rule instead.
The reason why my results only count the last three years (2017-2019) is because that's all the time I've had to look at so far. There's no real reason why I'm actively avoiding 2016. I'll be making an effort to look at the 2016 data soon.

Beating the Spread

The thought process behind this methodology is that we assume we will win half of our games against the regular un-teased spread. Then the hope is that we are able to "steal" another 23.9% (or more) via line movement. That'll get us to the required 73.9% win percentage.
Last week's Rams were a perfect example of this.
We believed that the Rams would cover the +2 spread about half of the time. (If you didn't believe this, you should've just bet that game against the regular un-teased spread.) But the reason we chose this game as a teaser candidate is because we realized that +2 would go through 3 and 7 when teased. We gain the most bang-for-the-buck if our teaser movement goes through 3 and 7. As it turned out, the Rams indeed lost by exactly 3.
There's no mathematical reason to believe that we should win against the un-teased spread more than half of the time (nor less than half, for that matter). The data in the three years prior (2017-2019) to this year show that all games fitting our methodology were a modest 155-147-18 against the un-teased spread. That comes out to 51.3% which is not a statistically significant departure from the half that we expect. More importantly, 51.3% is not good enough to beat the usual -110 vigorish.
In 22 games so far this year, the selections fitting the methodology were 16-5-1 against the un-teased spread! This pace is not sustainable. This bit of positive variance is also largely responsible for the astonishingly good 19-3 record in teaser legs. I expect a "regression to the mean" soon and strongly caution people against getting too giddy over three weeks of success. My official advice on Wong teasers remains the same as it has been in previous weeks: inconclusive, until we gather more research.

Line Shopping

However, I know that a lot of people are choosing to ignore my above advice and bet real money anyway. If you do, let me take a moment to talk about line shopping. At the very top of this post where my methodology says to "tease (this team) when the line is (this number)", that's shorthand for "when that team deserves to be at this spread". The reason why the suggestion is to use closing numbers is because it's thought that the closing number most accurately reflects the number of points that team deserves to be getting.
In terms of discussing when different books have slightly different point spreads: suppose that every book in the world has the Bears at +2½ but your book is listing the Bears at +3½ for no apparent reason. If you were intending to tease the Bears at +2½ all along, then of course you should tease them at +3½. Don't be this meme. If your book is giving you a free point, take it.
That's a different story than if every book agrees that Bears should be at +3½. In that case, that's probably what they deserve and an indication that maybe the quality of talent is not enough to justify the bet.
An analogy is that if I have a rule that says I'll only eat steak if it costs between $15-$50. The logic is that less than $15 would mean that the quality of the meat is unsatisfactory and more than $50 means that I can't afford it.
If a restaurant is offering to sell me a steak at a price of $10, but everyone else in the world thinks that $20 is the fair price for this steak, then I should purchase this steak at the incorrect price. Even though the actual price was outside my rule of $15-$50, the quality of the steak would be satisfactory enough.
On the other hand, if the restaurant is offering to sell me a steak at a price of $10, and everyone else in the world agrees that $10 is the fair price, then it means that the quality isn't to my liking.

This Week

I'm only going to post once per week. Normally, I try to make that post on Saturday evening but I'm forced to move up my timeline when the Thursday game is relevant. As of the time of this post, the Thursday game in Week 4 is not a tracked play but it's close. I'm making this post now to explicitly say that it might become a tracked play, so be aware.
In addition to tonight's game, the tentative list of tracked plays are:
  • Chicago +3
  • Jacksonville +3
  • Las Vegas +3
  • Tennessee +1½
  • Green Bay -7½
I emphasize that the list above is unofficial. Lines may move between the time of this post and kickoff, especially Tennessee! The determining factors are what sbrodds.com says Bovada's line is at time of kickoff and the methodology laid out at the top of this post. If Bovada's spread happens to be a point or so off of the consensus or if they engage in line shading, then so be it.
However I reserve the right to reject Bovada's number in situations where it's obviously wrong, such as a typo causing -8 to turn into -80. In all of my data so far, I've yet to invoke this right. If I ever do in the future, I promise to disclose that information anytime I post tracking results.
submitted by blackjack_counter to sportsbook [link] [comments]

[Game Preview] Week 4 - Philadelphia Eagles(0-2-1) at San Francisco 49ers (2-1)

Philadelphia Eagles (0-2-1) at San Francisco 49ers (2-1)
The Eagles are off to their worst start since 1999 when Eagles coach Doug Pederson was the starting QB for the Eagles in Andy Reid’s first season; where the Eagles started 0-3 and finished 5-11. The Eagles look to be on a similar trajectory this season with their 0-2-1 start following an embarrassing tie to the Bengals last week. The Eagles have the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL this season and the Eagles look like a bad football team. There really isn’t any other description of this team. They are bad on every level and it starts from the top. The team has played undisciplined and the offensive and defensive play-calling has been atrocious and has lacked identity. It seems like the game-planning this season has been phoned in with the coaches running the same vanilla offense and defense week in and week out and expecting the players to win it for them which they haven’t. Carson Wentz has regressed to the point he is unrecognizable and is making mistakes from his rookie season. His coaches don’t seem interested in helping him with fix those mistakes either as Doug Pederson and Press Taylor have failed to recognize Carson’s breakdowns in his mechanics. Their gameplans have done him no favors either utilizing a large number of 5 and 7 step drops despite having a multitude of injuries on the offensive line and at the wide receiver position. If the Eagles have any hope of salvaging their season they will need to pull out a win on Sunday night football against the 49ers and their strong defense. The 49ers are dealing with some injuries of their own with Bosa and Sherman on the IR on the defensive side and Jimmy G and Mosert most likely missing the game on offense. The San Fran defense is still tough with an impressive defensive line and speed all over the field. If Doug cares about Carson at all he will move the pocket and rely on Miles Sanders on the ground to keep the pass rush honest. On the defensive side, Schwartz will need to continue to mix it up with blitzes like he did against the Bengals, but he will need to pull his out of his ass in the secondary and learn that his CBs should not be playing 8-10 yards off the ball when playing man coverage. If Schwartz does a lot of the same in the secondary it could be a long day because Shanahan’s offense will exploit it and lead to another Eagles loss, this time in Prime Time. The Eagles will need to figure out how to get a win this week, or this streak of 3 straight playoff appearances will come to an end. Go Birds!
General Information
Posting Rules and Guidelines
Remember to join us on Discord during the game!
New to the Eagles? Take a look at our New Fan Page!
Score Prediction Contest
Date
Sunday, October 4th, 2020
Game Time Game Location
8:20 PM - Eastern Levi’s Stadium
7:20 PM - Central 4900 Marie P DeBartolo Way
6:20 PM - Mountain Santa Clara, CA 95054
5:20 PM - Pacific Wikipedia - Map
Weather Forecast
Stadium Type: Open Air
Surface: Grass
Temperature: 74°F
Feels Like: 74°F
Forecast: Clear. Clear throughout the day
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Cloud Coverage: 1%
Wind: West-Northwest 6 MPH
Betting Odds
Oddsshark Information
Favorite/Opening Line: 49ers -7
OveUnder: 46
Record VS. Spread: Philadelphia 0-3, San Francisco 2-1
Where to Watch on TV
NBC* will broadcast Sunday’s game to a national audience. Al Michaels will handle the play-by-play duties and Chris Collinsworth will provide analysis and Michele Tafoya will report from the sidelines.
TV Map - Week 4 TV Coverage Map
Radio Streams
List of Eagles Radio network member stations with internet broadcast availability
Radio.com 94.1 Desktop Streaming
Listen to Merrill Reese and Mike Quick
Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (44th season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.
Location Station Frequency
Philadelphia, PA WIP-FM 94.1 FM and 610 AM
Allentown, PA WCTO-FM 96.1 FM
Atlantic City/South Jersey WENJ-FM 97.3 FM
Levittown, PA WBCB-AM 1490 AM
Northumberland, PA WEGH-FM 107.3 FM
Pottsville, PA WPPA-AM 1360 AM
Reading, PA WEEU-AM 830 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WAFL-FM 97.7 FM
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA WEJL-FM 96.1 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WAFL-FM 97.7 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WEJL-AM 630 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WBAX-AM 1240 AM
Williamsport, PA WBZD-FM 93.3 FM
Wilmington, DE WDEL-FM/AM 101.7 FM
York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA WSOX-FM 96.1 FM
Philadelphia Spanish Radio
Rickie Ricardo and Bill Kulik will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.
Location Station Frequency
Philadelphia, PA LA MEGA 105.7 FM
Allentown, PA WSAN 1470 AM
Atlantic City, NJ WIBG 1020 AM; 101.3 FM
49ers Radio
49ers Radio Greg Papa will handle play-by-play and Tim Ryan will provide analysis for the game.
National Radio
Westwood One will broadcast the game nationally with Ryan Radtke handling the play by play and Terrell Davis will provide analysis.
Satellite Radio
Station Eagles Channel 49ers Channel
Sirius Radio SIRI 81 (Streaming 825) SIRI 83 (Streaming 827)
XM Radio XM 226 (Streaming 825) 225 (Streaming 827)
Sirius XM Radio SXM 226 (Streaming 825) SXM 225 (Streaming 827)
Eagles Social Media 49ers Social Media
Website Website
Facebook Facebook
Twitter Twitter
Instagram Instagram
Snapchat: Eagles Snapchat: sf49ers
NFC East Standings
NFC EAST Record PCT Home Road Div Conf PF PA Net Pts Streak
Football Team 1-2 .333 1-0 0-2 1-0 1-1 62 81 -19 2L
Cowboys 1-2 .333 1-0 0-2 0-0 1-2 88 97 -9 1L
Eagles 0-2-1 .167 0-1-1 0-1 0-1 0-2 59 87 -28 0
Giants 0-3 .000 0-2 0-1 0-0 0-2 38 79 -41 3L
Series Information
Rhe San Francisco 49ers lead the Philadelphia Eagles(San Francisco 49ers lead series, 19-13-1)
Series History
Head to Head Box Scores
First Game Played
October 6th, 1951 at Shibe Park, Philadelphia, PA . Philadelphia Eagles 21 - San Francisco 49ers 14.
Points Leader
Philadelphia Eagles lead San Francisco 49ers (749-733)
Coaches Record
Doug Pederson: 1-0 against the 49ers
Kyle Shanahan: 0-1 against Eagles
Coaches Head to Head
Doug Pederson vs Kyle Shanahan: Pederson leads 1-0
Quarterback Record
Carson Wentz: Against 49ers: 1-0
Jimmy Garapolo: Against Eagles: 0-0
Quarterbacks Head to Head
Carson Wentz v Jimmy Garapolo: First meeting between QBs.
Records per Stadium
Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Eagles lead 49ers: 3-2
Record @ Levi’s Stadium: 49ers lead Eagles 1-0
Rankings and Last Meeting Information
AP Pro 32 Ranking
Eagles No. 26 - 49ers No. 12
Record
Eagles: 0-2-1
49ers: 2-1
Last Meeting
Sunday, October 29th, 2017
Eagles 34 - 49ers 10
The Eagles looked to win their 6th game in a row against the winless San Francisco 49ers. The Eagles got off to a slow start, only leading 3–0 after the first quarter. Late in the second quarter, the Eagles blew the game open. Carson Wentz found tight end Zach Ertz for a 1-yard touchdown in the back of the end zone off of a bootleg pass, and Jalen Mills intercepted rookie quarterback C.J. Beathard and returned it 37 yards for a touchdown. The 49ers appeared to have some life in the third quarter, following a Carson Wentz interception, leading to a Matt Breida 22 yard touchdown reception. However, the Eagles responded, with Wentz connecting with Alshon Jeffery for a 53-yard touchdown, putting the game out of reach. The Eagles went on to win 33–10 and advanced to 7–1 on the season. Despite the win, the Eagles played a sloppy game on a rainy afternoon in Philadelphia.
Click here to view the Video Recap
Click here to view the Stats Recap
Last 10 Meetings
Date Winner Loser Score
10/29/2017 Eagles 49ers 33-10
9/28/2014 49ers Eagles 26-21
10/2/2011 49ers Eagles 24-23
10/10/2010 Eagles 49ers 27-24
12/20/2009 Eagles 49ers 27-13
10/12/2008 Eagles 49ers 40-26
9/24/2006 Eagles 49ers 38--24
9/18/2005 Eagles 49ers 42-3
12/21/2003 49ers Eagles 31-28
11/25/2002 Eagles 49ers 38-17 
Injury Reports Depth Charts
Eagles Eagles
49ers 49ers
2020 “Expert” Picks
Week 4 - "Expert" Picks
2020 Team Stats
Eagles Season Stats
49ers Season Stats
2020 Stats (Starters/Leaders)
Passing
Name CMP ATT PCT YDS TD INT RAT
Wentz 79 132 59.85% 737 3 6 63.9
Garoppolo 33 49 67.35% 390 4 0 118.6
Mullens 33 47 70.21% 414 4 1 95.5
Rushing
Name ATT YDS YDS/G AVG TD
Sanders 38 190 95 5.0 1
Mosert 23 148 74.0 6.4 1
Mckinnon 20 139 46.3 7.0 2
Receiving
Name REC YDS YDS/G AVG TD
Ertz 15 130 43.3 8.7 1
Reed 11 85 28.3 7.7 2
Sacks
Name Sacks Team Total
Graham 3.0 12
Hyder 2.0 5
Tackles
Name Total Solo Assist Sacks
Gerry 25 12 13 0.0
Warner 28 17 11 0.0
Interceptions
Name Ints Team Total
N/A 0 0
Tartt/Warner 1 2
Punting
Name ATT YDS LONG AVG NET IN 20 TB BP
Johnston 13 673 62 51.8 45.5 7 1 0
Wishnowsky 8 377 59 47.1 43.6 5 1 0
Kicking
Name ATT MADE % LONG PAT
Elliot 7 6 85.7% 54 5/5
Gould 7 6 85.7% 52 9/9
Kick Returns
Name ATT YDS AVG LONG TD
Scott 3 61 20.3 25 0
McKinnon 4 87 21.8 29 0
Punt Returns
Name RET YDS AVG LONG TD FC
Ward 3 10 3.3 8 0 3
Taylor 2 21 10.5 12 0 1
League Rankings 2020
Offense Rankings
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank 49ers Stat 49ers Rank
Total Offense 336.3 24th 381.7 14th
Rush Offense 117.7 17th 132.7 12th
Pass Offense 218.7 24th 249.0 15th
Points Per Game 19.7 27th 29.0 T-11th
3rd-Down Offense 46.8% 9th 47.2 8th
4th-Down Offense 0.0% T-28th 0.0 T-28th
Red Zone Offense (TD%) 57.1% T-20th 61.5% T-16th
Defense Rankings
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank 49ers Stat 49ers Rank
Total Defense 330.7 5th 304.0 3rd
Rush Defense 106.3 9th 116.7 16th
Pass Defense 224.3 7th 187.3 2nd
Points Per Game 29.0 23rd 15.3 2nd
3rd-Down Defense 34.9% 5th 42.1% 14th
4th-Down Defense 66.7% 21st 25.0% T-6th
Red Zone Defense (TD%) 69.2% 21st 50.0% T-6th
Team
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank 49ers Stat 49ers Rank
Turnover Diff. -7 32nd +3 T-5th
Total Penalties 19 19th 16 T-11th
Total Penalty Yards 143 16th 157 18th
Recap from Last Week’s Games.
Eagles - The Eagles welcomed the Cincinnati Bengals to Lincoln Financial Field seeking their first win over Cincinnati since 2000. After a scoreless first quarter, the two teams traded field goals in the second, before the Bengals took a 10-6 lead on a touchdown reception by Tee Higgins. Wentz responded on the ensuing drive, as he threw his 100th career touchdown pass to Greg Ward to put the Eagles in front 13-10 at halftime. After the Eagles added another Jake Elliott field goal, the Bengals reclaimed a one-point lead with Higgins' second touchdown of the afternoon. Cincinnati would pad its lead to seven points with two fourth-quarter field goals. Trailing 23-16 with just over 3 minutes left in regulation, Philadelphia drove down the field to score the game-tying touchdown on a 7-yard run for Wentz. In overtime, both defenses held strong, with neither team being able to get into field goal range until the final drive, when the Eagles got to the Bengals' 41. However, a costly false start on Matt Pryor brought Philadelphia out of field goal range. The Eagles punted the ball, and the game ended on the following play with the Bengals at their own 20. Despite his milestone, Wentz's struggles continued as he also threw two interceptions for the third straight game and finished the game with a 62.8 passer rating. Philadelphia improved to 0-2-1 with the tie, but failed to snap their winless streak against Cincinnati and fell to 0-3-2 in their last five against the Bengals, including an 0-2-1 mark at Lincoln Financial Field. This marked the Eagles' first tie since 2008, which was also against the Bengals.
49ers - The way the San Francisco 49ers played, missing quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and a slew of starters wasn't an issue against the woeful and winless New York Giants, who were also missing their best player in Saquan Barkley. 49ers backup Nick Mullens threw for 343 yards and a touchdown and the Niners controlled the ball on offense, took it away on defense and had another easy day on the East Coast in a 36-9 win at MetLife Stadium Sunday. San Francisco scored on seven of its first eight possessions. It would have been all eight but a snap-hold problem led to Gould missing a 55-yarder. He connected from 52, 32 and 26 yards. The Niners' ninth possession ended the game.
Connections
49ers Practice Squad LB Joe Walker played 3 seasons for the Eagles from 2016-2018.
49ers Offensive Quality Control Coach Miles Austin played one season for the Eagles in 2015.
49ers Inside LB coach Demeco Ryans played 4 seasons for the Eagles from 2012-2015.
49ers Assistant Special Teams coach Michael Clay was a Defensive Special Assistant (2014) and Assistant Special Teams coach(2015) from 2014-2015.
49ers RB Raheem Mosert was signed as an undrafted free agent in 2015 and was placed on their practice squad before he was signed off the practice squad by the Miami Dolphins.
Eagles Special Teams coach Dave Fipp worked as the Assistant special teams coach for the 49ers from 2008-2010.
Eagles Senior Offensive Assistant Rich Scangarello worked as the QB coach for the 49ers from 2017-2018.
Eagles Senior Offensive Assistant Marty Mornhinweg worked for the 49ers as Offensive coordinator & quarterbacks coach from 1997-2000.
Eagles WR Marquise Goodwin played 3 seasons for the 49ers from 2017-2019.
2020 Pro Bowlers
Eagles 49ers
DT Fletcher Cox (Starter) FB Kyle Juszczyk (Starter)
OG Brandon Brooks (Starter) TE George Kittle (Starter)
C Jason Kelce (Starter) DE Nick Bosa (Starter)
LS Rick Lovato (Starter) CB Richard Sherman(Starter)
TE Zach Ertz
SS Malcom Jenkings (1st Alt)
OT Lane Johnson (1st Alt
General
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Dating back to 2005, Philadelphia has won 6 of its last 8 games vs. San Francisco. In the last meeting between the two teams, the Eagles defeated the 49ers, 33-10, at Lincoln Financial Field.
Additionally, Philadelphia has captured 4 of its previous 5 road games against San Francisco since 2002.
The Eagles defense, which collected a season-high 8.0 sacks in Week 3 vs. Cincinnati, is tied for the 3rd-most sacks (12.0) in the NFL, behind Pittsburgh (15.0) and Washington (13.0).
Brandon Graham is tied for the 5th-most sacks (team-high 3.0) in the NFL this season. He needs only 1.0 sack to surpass Hugh Douglas (54.5, 1998-2002, ‘04) for the 4th-most sacks in team history, trailing only Reggie White (124.0, 1985-92), Trent Cole (85.5, 2005-14) and Clyde Simmons (76.0, 1986-93).
Miles Sanders has produced the 7th-most rushing yards (190) in the NFL since Week 2 (95 rushing yards each against the Rams and Bengals). Sanders has also totaled 100+ scrimmage yards in 4 of his last 5 regular-season games.
Draft Picks
Eagles 49ers
WR Jalen Raegor DT Javon Kinlaw
QB Jalen Hurts WR Brandon Aiyuk
LB Davion Taylor OT Colton McKivitz
S K’Von Wallace TE Charlie Woerner
OT Jack Driscoll WR Jauan Jennings
WR John Hightower
LB Shaun Bradley
WR Quez Watkins
OT Prince Tega Wanogho
LB/DE Casey Toohill
Notable Off-season Additions
Eagles 49ers
S Will Parks OT Trent Williams
DT Javon Hargrave WR Mohamed Sanu
CB Nickell Robey-Coleman DT Kerry Hyder
CB Darius Slay C Hroniss Grasu
WR Tavon Austin
TE Jordan Reed
DE Dion Jordan
Notable Off-season Departures
Eagles 49ers
S Malcom Jenkins OT Joe Staley
CB Ronald Darby DT Deforest Buckner
RB Jordan Howard WR Emmanuel Sanders
WR Nelson Agholor WR Marquise Goodwin
OL Halapoulivaati Vaitai DT Sheldon Day
LB Kamu Grugler-Hill RG Mike Person
RB Darren Sproles TE Garret Celek
DT Timmy Jernigan
LB Nigel Bradham
Milestones
Eagles WR Desean Jackson (6397) needs 68 yards to move up to 3rd on the Eagles all-time receiving yards list all-time passing WR *Mike Quick
Eagles WR Desean Jackson (34) needs 2 TDs to move into a tie for 7th on the Eagles all-time receiving TD list tying WR Jeremy Maclin
Eagles DE Brandon Graham (54) needs 1 sack to move to 4th on the Eagles all-time sack list passing DE Hugh Douglas
Eagles DT Fletcher Cox (49) needs 1.5 sacks to move up to 6th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DE Greg Brown
Eagles DE Vinny Curry (27.5) needs 2 sacks to move up to 18th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DT Jerome Brown
49ers DE Arik Armstead(20) needs 2 sacks to move up to 20th on the 49ers all-time sack list passing OLB Parys Haralson.
Stats to Know
Receiving RBs
What if I told you the Niners have two of the league’s best receiving Running Backs? (Yes, one is hurt). What if I also told you the Eagles’ defenders are presently poop covering RBs against the pass? That about sums it up. Mr. McKinnon should have a fun day.
Matchups to Watch
Carson Wentz
This is the only real battle that matters since it's extremely difficult to win in the NFL with poor QB play. Wentz is among the worst QBs in the league to start the season and it could be a significant amount of time before he changes course. Even the most stalwart Wentz supporters must admit he is also a problem with this team right now. With that said, in order to win this game, and any game moving forward, the Eagles need Carson Wentz to improve. Philly can't use the injury excuse in this particular matchup as the Niners are one of the only teams to be in a similar or worse injury predicament than the Eagles. Even with the injuries, the Niners are able to show up and show out on a weekly basis... They are a great team. Wentz has had issues in all areas pertaining to play. He needs to be more precise, smarter, and more relaxed. This team sucks; it's likely no amount of heroism if going to pull this team from the depths of the league this season. The only thing Carson Wentz can do is his job. He's not responsible for coaching blunders, other injuries, or a GM that can't get anything right. Just get better and when he does, this team can actually be competitive.
Kyle Shanahan and his offensive genius vs Jim Schwartz and the LBs and Safeties
It should be no surprise the Eagles LBs and Safeties struggle in coverage as they did nothing in the offseason to add players that can cover. Plain and simple. This is a defense with a great defensive line, a great CB1, and that's it. They struggle to play consistent run defense now with the mediocre talent in the second and third levels. Kyle Shanahan is one of the most innovative offensive minds in the NFL; if you thought the thumping Sean McVay gave us was painful, wait until we see what's in store from the guy who mentored McVay. Shanahan lives for finding your weakest links in the LB and Safety rooms and exploiting that deficiency mercilessly. Nate Gerry is about to have his worst game ever - and that says something. George Kittle should return for this contest which is a tremendous mismatch that the Niners will exploit. Even the best cover guys in the league struggle against Kittle as he's just a monster. Shanahan will use all kinds of motion, misdirection, and play action that will cause this defense to struggle mightily absent some sort of miracle where they learn to play. I have faith that the defensive line can play well, but as we saw in week 2, all the motion, misdirection, and play action teams use can neutralize a pass rush. Lastly, can Schwartz even put his guys in better positions? Yeah, probably not.
Doug Pederson’s Offensive Game Plan vs the Niners Defense
I tried to have a more nuanced look at this matchup but it is difficult. The Eagles offense is marred by underachieving talent and injuries to start the season. Furthermore, they weren't given enough to work with by the front office but that is an entirely different discussion. Point blank: the offensive coaching staff, led by Doug Pederson, has struggled to consistently put its players in successful situations to start the season. It's not all Doug's fault but a large part of it is. There wasn't a real identity to this offense to start and that's only gotten worse 4 weeks in. This roster isn't going to suddenly improve overnight, if at all this season, so it's up to the coaching staff to help the offense succeed. There are a lot of new cooks involved in creating the offensive game plan but not enough overall direction from the man in charge. The Niners defense has plenty of injuries to key players as well; can they design a function offense built on spare parts to put up a fight? Or will they punt?
Special thanks to MikeTysonChicken and abenyishay for their help in creating this Game Preview.
submitted by Rsubs33 to eagles [link] [comments]

[Game Preview] Week 5 - Philadelphia Eagles(1-2-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0)

Philadelphia Eagles (1-2-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0)
It’s that time again for the battle of the Keystone state. The Eagles are looking to build on their first win of the season when they upset the 49ers last week on Sunday Night football, while the Steelers are looking to get back on the field as their game with the Titans was postponed due to the Titans being morons. The game will be a match up between two of the best defensive lines in the NFL this season. Eagles lead the league with 17 sacks, while the Steelers are right on their tail with 15 sacks despite playing one less game. The Eagles patch work offensive line held up last week against the 49ers but they were without their best pass rusher in Nick Bosa. This week, Jordan Mailata and the rest of the line will be tested early and often and will need to hold up to give Carson Wentz time to find his band of rag tag WRs. However, he may get some help this week with the return of Alshon Jeffrey who could be playing his first time since suffering a Lisfranc injury last season. Jeffrey will give Carson something he has been severely missing this season in a big WR who can make contested catches along the sidelines. The Eagles may also see the return of JJAW and Desean Jackson as both have practiced in a limited capacity this week after missing last week’s game due to hamstring injuries. Carson and the Eagles offense will need all the help they can get facing one of the league’s top defenses in a year where they have struggled to get much going in the first four games. On the other side of the ball the Eagles will face one of its toughest tests this season especially Darius Slay who will be following JuJu Smith Schuster. If Slay can shutdown the JuJu the Eagles offense will have a good chance of holding the Steelers in check and give a chance to their offense to win the game. We will see if the Eagles can hold on to the belt of PA this Sunday in their toughest test this season. Go Birds!
General Information
Posting Rules and Guidelines
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Score Prediction Contest
Date
Sunday, October 11th, 2020
Game Time Game Location
1:00 PM - Eastern Heinz Field
12:00 PM - Central 100 Art Rooney Avenue
11:00 AM - Mountain Pittsburgh, PA 15212
10:00 AM - Pacific Wikipedia - Map
Weather Forecast
Stadium Type: Open Air
Surface: Grass
Temperature: 68°F
Feels Like: 69°F
Forecast: Overcast. Rain overnight.
Chance of Precipitation: 8%
Cloud Coverage: 99%
Wind: South-Southeast 4 MPH
Betting Odds
Oddsshark Information
Favorite/Opening Line: Steelers -7
OveUnder: 44.5
Record VS. Spread: Philadelphia 1-3, Pittsburgh 2-1
Where to Watch on TV
FOX will broadcast Sunday’s game to a regional audience. Kenny Albert will handle the play-by-play duties and Jonathan Vilma will provide analysis and Shannon Spake will report from the sidelines.
TV Map - Week 5 TV Coverage Map
Radio Streams
List of Eagles Radio network member stations with internet broadcast availability
Radio.com 94.1 Desktop Streaming
Listen to Merrill Reese and Mike Quick
Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (44th season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.
Location Station Frequency
Philadelphia, PA WIP-FM 94.1 FM and 610 AM
Allentown, PA WCTO-FM 96.1 FM
Atlantic City/South Jersey WENJ-FM 97.3 FM
Levittown, PA WBCB-AM 1490 AM
Northumberland, PA WEGH-FM 107.3 FM
Pottsville, PA WPPA-AM 1360 AM
Reading, PA WEEU-AM 830 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WAFL-FM 97.7 FM
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA WEJL-FM 96.1 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WAFL-FM 97.7 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WEJL-AM 630 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WBAX-AM 1240 AM
Williamsport, PA WBZD-FM 93.3 FM
Wilmington, DE WDEL-FM/AM 101.7 FM
York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA WSOX-FM 96.1 FM
Philadelphia Spanish Radio
Rickie Ricardo and Bill Kulik will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.
Location Station Frequency
Philadelphia, PA LA MEGA 105.7 FM
Allentown, PA WSAN 1470 AM
Atlantic City, NJ WIBG 1020 AM; 101.3 FM
Steelers Radio
Steelers Radio Since 1995, Bill Hillgrove has served as the Voice of the Steelers and has handled play-by-play duties for the broadcast. Former Steelers All-Pro offensive tackle Tunch Ilkin joined the broadcast team in 2001 as an expert analyst. His former teammate, Craig Wolfley, has served as a sideline reporter since 2005. In 2019, Missi Matthews joined Craig Wolfley as an additional sideline reporter.
National Radio
ESPN Radio will broadcast the game nationally with Sean Kelley handling the play by play and Ben Hartstock will provide analysis.
Satellite Radio
Station Eagles Channel Steelers Channel
Sirius Radio SIRI 134 (Streaming 825) SIRI 83 (Streaming 826)
XM Radio Streaming 825 XM 225 (Streaming 826)
Sirius XM Radio SXM 384 (Streaming 825) SXM 225 (Streaming 826)
Eagles Social Media Steelers Social Media
Website Website
Facebook Facebook
Twitter Twitter
Instagram Instagram
Snapchat: Eagles Snapchat: steelers
NFC East Standings
NFC EAST Record PCT Home Road Div Conf PF PA Net Pts Streak
Eagles 1-2-1 .375 0-1-1 1-1 0-1 1-2 84 107 -23 1W
Football Team 1-3 .250 1-1 0-2 1-0 1-1 79 112 -33 3L
Cowboys 1-3 .250 1-1 0-2 0-0 1-2 88 126 -20 2L
Giants 0-4 .000 0-2 0-2 0-0 0-3 38 47 -49 4L
Series Information
The Philadelphia Eagles vs Pittsburgh Steelers. Eagles lead series, 48-28-3
Series History
Head to Head Box Scores
First Game Played
November 19th 1933 at Baker Bowl, Philadelphia, PA . Philadelphia Eagles 25 - Pittsburgh Pirates 6
Points Leader
Philadelphia Eagles lead Pittsburgh Steelers (1498-1116)
Coaches Record
Doug Pederson: 1-0 against the Steelers
Mike Tomlin: 1-2 against Eagles
Coaches Head to Head
Doug Pederson vs Mike Tomlin: Pederson leads 1-0
Quarterback Record
Carson Wentz: Against Steelers: 1-0
Ben Roethlisberger : Against Eagles: 2-2
Quarterbacks Head to Head
Carson Wentz v Ben Roethlisberger: Wentz leads 1-0
Records per Stadium
Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Eagles lead Steelers: 2-0
Record @ Heinz Field: Steelers lead Eagles 2-0
Rankings and Last Meeting Information
AP Pro 32 Ranking
Eagles No. 20 - Steelers No. 6
Record
Eagles: 1-2-1
Steelers: 3-0
Last Meeting
Sunday, September 25th, 2016
Eagles 34 - Steelers 3
The Eagles blocked a Chris Boswell field goal on the opening drive to deny the Steelers three points. The Eagles drew first blood with a Caleb Strugis field goal to make the score 3–0. Early in the 2nd quarter, Rookie Quarterback Carson Wentz threw a 12-yard touchdown to Jordan Matthews to extend their lead to 10-0. The Steelers answered with a Chris Boswell field goal to make it 10-3 which ended up being their only scoring play of the day. Strugis notched another field goal to bring the score to 13–3 at the half. Early in the 2nd Half, Wentz threw his second TD of the day, a 73-yard touchdown to running back Darren Sproles. Following a 3 and out by the Steelers, rookie running back Wendell Smallwood found the endzone for his first career rushing touchdown and it extended the Eagles lead to 27–3. On the Steelers next drive, veteran quarterback Ben Roethlisberger fumbled the football which the Eagles recovered. The Eagles would add another score on a Kenjon Barner rushing touchdown. The Eagles defense which had shutdown and frustrated the Steelers offense most of the day forced one more turnover to seal the game when Roethlisberger threw an interception to Rodney McLeod. The Eagles added another field goal for a final score of 34-3.
Click here to view the Video Recap
Click here to view the Stats Recap
Last Meeting at Site
Sunday, October 7th, 2012
Steelers 16 - Eagles 14
The Eagles traveled to western Pennsylvania to take on longtime in-state rival Steelers at Heinz Field. After a scoreless first quarter, the Steelers were able to get on the board first with Rashard Mendenhall's 13-yard touchdown run for a 7–0 lead followed by Shaun Suisham's 20-yard field goal for a 10–0 lead at halftime. The Eagles went to work in the 3rd quarter as Michael Vick found LeSean McCoy on a 15-yard touchdown pass to shorten the lead to 10–7. The Steelers increased their lead with Suisham kicking a 37-yard field goal to make the score 13–7. The Eaglesl took the lead with Vick hooking up with Brent Celek on a 2-yard touchdown pass for a 14–13 score. However, the Steelers were able to drive down the field and Suisham wrapped up the game with a game-winning 34-yard field goal for a final score of 16–14.
Click here to view the Video Recap
Click here to view the Stats Recap
Last 10 Meetings
Date Winner Loser Score
9/25/16 Eagles Steelers 34-3
10/7/12 Steelers Eagles 16-14
9/21/08 Eagles Steelers 15-6
11/7/04 Steelers Eagles 27-3
11/12/00 Eagles Steelers 26-23
11/23/97 Eagles Steelers 23-20
12/11/94 Steelers Eagles 14-3
9/22/91 Eagles Steelers 23-14
11/13/88 Eagles Steelers 27-26
9/30/79 Eagles Steelers 17-14
Injury Reports Depth Charts
Eagles Eagles
Steelers Steelers
2020 “Expert” Picks
Week 5 - "Expert" Picks
2020 Team Stats
Eagles Season Stats
Steelers Season Stats
2020 Stats (Starters/Leaders)
Passing
Name CMP ATT PCT YDS TD INT RAT
Wentz 97 160 60.62% 930 4 7 66.9
Roethlisberger 73 109 67.0% 777 7 1 105.2
Rushing
Name ATT YDS YDS/G AVG TD
Sanders 51 236 78.7 4.6 1
Connor 40 224 74.7 5.6 2
Receiving
Name REC YDS YDS/G AVG TD
Ward 18 146 36.5 8.1 1
Smith-Schuster 17 160 53.5 9.4 3
Sacks
Name Sacks Team Total
Graham/Sweat 3.0 17
Watt 3.5 15
Tackles
Name Total Solo Assist Sacks
Gerry 33 17 16 0.0
Hilton 21 19 2 2.0
Interceptions
Name Ints Team Total
Singleton/McLeod 1 2
Haden/Hilton/Watt/Heyward 1 4
Punting
Name ATT YDS LONG AVG NET IN 20 TB BP
Johnston 19 980 62 51.6 45.9 10 2 0
Colquitt 13 569 59 43.8 36.8 4 1 0
Kicking
Name ATT MADE % LONG PAT
Elliot 8 7 87.5% 54 7/7
Boswell 5 5 100.0% 41 7/8
Kick Returns
Name ATT YDS AVG LONG TD
Scott 4 76 19.0 25 0
McCloud 5 144 28.8 49 0
Punt Returns
Name RET YDS AVG LONG TD FC
Ward 4 18 4.5 8 0 5
Johnson 5 38 7.6 18 0 2
League Rankings 2020
Offense Rankings
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Steelers Stat Steelers Rank
Total Offense 319.0 28th 382.0 14th
Rush Offense 111.5 18th 139.7 8th
Pass Offense 207.5 27th 242.3 19th
Points Per Game 21.0 26th 26.7 T-12th
3rd-Down Offense 43.3% 25th 40.0% T-20th
4th-Down Offense 40.0% T-24th 80.0% T-6th
Red Zone Offense (TD%) 55.6% T-22nd 50.0% T-25th
Defense Rankings
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Steelers Stat Steelers Rank
Total Defense 352.3 10th 290.0 2nd
Rush Defense 108.8 12th 54.0 1st
Pass Defense 243.5 17th 236.0 12th
Points Per Game 26.8 20th 19.3 5th
3rd-Down Defense 37.0% 6th 42.9% 19th
4th-Down Defense 50.0% T-15th 33.3% T-7th
Red Zone Defense (TD%) 68.8% 23rd 44.4% T-4th
Team
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Steelers Stat Steelers Rank
Turnover Diff. -5 T-29th +2 T-8th
Total Penalties 22 T-15th 15 T-4th
Total Penalty Yards 168 14th 124 6th
Recap from Last Week’s Games.
Eagles - The Eagles traveled across the country following an embarrassing tie to the Bengals in week 3. Doug and Carson looked to redeem themselves against a team that was suffering from almost as many injuries as the Eagles. The Eagles struck first with Carson running the ball in on an 11 yard scramble. Doug felt that he needed to dust off his balls and show everyone that he did in fact still have them after pussying out last week, deciding to inexplicably go for 2, but it paid off to put the Eagles up 8-0. The 49ers answered with a score of their own when rookie WR Brandon Aiyuk hurdled Eagles safety Marcus Epps and found the endzone. After halftime the 49ers came out firing and took their first lead of the game with a George Kittle TD. The Eagles answered with a field goal to bring the score to 14-11. After the Nick Mullens fumble the Eagles took advantage as Carson Wentz dropped a dime to Tyler Fulgham for a 42 yard TD pass to give the EAgles a 18-14 lead. On the very next drive Mullens threw his second interception of the game right to Alex Singleton who took it to the house for a pick 6 and put the Eagles up 25-14. On the next possession, Jim Schwartz switched to his shitty sticks defense despite the 49ers putting in their 3rd string QB Beathard. Schwartz gifted Beathard easy throws as he quickly moved the ball down the field for an easy TD. The Eagles recovered an outside kick, but went three and out. Schwartz continued to see the error in his sticks defense as Beathard again moved the ball with ease, but thankfully the Eagles players made some plays breaking up some key passes and bailing out their coach’s poor decisions.
Steelers - Steelers game week 4 was postponed because the Titans are morons.
Connections
Eagles DT Javon Hargrave was drafted by the Steelers in the 3rd round of the 2016 NFL Draft and played 4 seasons with the Steelers before signing with the Eagles this past offseason.
Eagles senior director of player personnel was the General Manager for the Steelers from 1991-1999 and is from the Pittsburgh suburb of Mt. Lebanon.
Eagles RB Coach Duce Staley played 3 seasons for the Steelers from 2004-2006 winning Super Bowl XL with them in 2006.
Eagles TE Coach Justin Peele signed with the Steelers in 2012, but was released with the final cuts following training camp.
Eagles RB Miles Sanders is from Pittsburgh and attended Woodland Hills HS.
Steelers G/C Stefan Wisniewski played three seasons for the Eagles from 2016-2018 winning Super Bowl LII with them in 2017.
Steelers OT Alejandro Villanueva was signed by the Eagles in 2014 and placed on their Practice Squad before being signed off their PS by the Steelers later that season.
Steelers Practice Squad RB Wendell Smallwood was drafted by the Eagles in the 5th round of the 2016 draft and played 3 seasons with them from 2016-2018.
Steelers Special Teams Coordinator Danny Smith was the Special Teams and DB coach for the Eagles from 1995-1998.
2020 Pro Bowlers
Eagles Steelers
DT Fletcher Cox (Starter) C Maurkice Pouncey (Starter)
OG Brandon Brooks (Starter) G David DeCastro
C Jason Kelce (Starter) DT Cameron Heyward (Starter)
LS Rick Lovato (Starter) OLB T. J. Watt (Starter)
TE Zach Ertz FS Minkah Fitzpatrick (Starter)
SS Malcom Jenkings (1st Alt) CB Joe Haden (1st Alt)
OT Lane Johnson (1st Alt
General
Referee: Ron Torbert
Philadelphia owns a 48-28-3 all-time record vs. Pittsburgh in a series that dates back to 1933. The Eagles have won 4 of the last 6 games against the Steelers, as well as 7 of the last 10.
The last time these two teams met was on 9/25/16 at Lincoln Financial Field, when Philadelphia defeated Pittsburgh, 34-3, in the second game of Carson Wentz’s NFL career and the second game of Doug Pederson’s tenure as the Eagles’ head coach.
Philadelphia is aiming for its first road victory at Pittsburgh since a 26-23 overtime win at Three Rivers Stadium on 11/12/00.
The Eagles (17.0) and Steelers (15.0) enter this week’s matchup ranked 1st and 2nd in the NFL in sacks, respectively. This is the first time Philadelphia has led the league in sacks during Weeks 1-4 since 2011 (15.0, tied with Washington). It is also the Eagles’ most sacks through 4 games since 2008 (also 17.0).
Pittsburgh native Miles Sanders ranks 5th in the NFL with 236 rushing yards since his season debut in Week 2, trailing only Dal-vin Cook, Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb and Joe Mixon.
Draft Picks
Eagles Steelers
WR Jalen Raegor WR Chase Claypool
QB Jalen Hurts OLB Alex Highsmith
LB Davion Taylor RB Anthony McFarland Jr.
S K’Von Wallace G Kevin Dotson
OT Jack Driscoll S Antoine Brooks
WR John Hightower ST Carlos Davis
LB Shaun Bradley
WR Quez Watkins
OT Prince Tega Wanogho
LB/DE Casey Toohill
Notable Off-season Additions
Eagles Steelers
S Will Parks FB Derek Watt
DT Javon Hargrave G/C Stefan Wisniewski
CB Nickell Robey-Coleman TE Eric Ebron
CB Darius Slay Dt Chris Wormley
Notable Off-season Departures
Eagles Steelers
S Malcom Jenkins DT Javon Hargrave
CB Ronald Darby G Ramon Foster
RB Jordan Howard TE Nick Vannett
WR Nelson Agholor OL B.J. Finney
OL Halapoulivaati Vaitai LB Tyler Matakevich
LB Kamu Grugler-Hill CB Artie Burns
RB Darren Sproles S Sean Davis
DT Timmy Jernigan FB Roosevelt Nix
LB Nigel Bradham
Milestones
Eagles WR Desean Jackson (6397) needs 68 yards to move up to 3rd on the Eagles all-time receiving yards list all-time passing WR Mike Quick
Eagles WR Desean Jackson (34) needs 2 TDs to move into a tie for 7th on the Eagles all-time receiving TD list tying WR Jeremy Maclin
Eagles DE Brandon Graham (54) needs 1 sack to move to 4th on the Eagles all-time sack list passing DE Hugh Douglas
Eagles DT Fletcher Cox (49) needs 1.5 sacks to move up to 6th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DE Greg Brown
Eagles DE Vinny Curry (27.5) needs 2 sacks to move up to 18th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DT Jerome Brown
Steelers DT Cameron Heyward (54.5) needs 3 sacks to move up to 5th on the Steelers all-time sack list passing OLB LaMarr Woodley
Steelers DT Bud Dupree (34) needs 2 sacks to move up to 10th on the Steelers all-time sack list passing LB Lawrence Timmons and LB **Kevin Greene)
Stats to Know
Battle of the Defensive Lines
This game will feature two of the top Pressure-generating Defensive Lines. Watt, Dupree, and Tuitt are all in the top 10 DLmen in pressures, with 18, 17, and 17. Meanwhile, the Eagles feature 3 in the top 20. Graham, Jackson, and Cox have netted 15, 14, and 13. Considering Philadelphia's makeshift OL and that QB Wentz has a remarkable 20.0 passer rating under pressure, this could get ugly.
Matchups to Watch
Steelers Offensive Line vs Eagles Defensive Line
As the Eagles defensive line goes so goes the defense. That statement has always been true for the Eagles under Jim Schwartz, but that has never been more emphasized this year given the lack of talent elsewhere on the defense especially at LB. This defensive line has been firing on all cylinders with a league leading 17 sacks through 4 games. This has been especially the last two weeks, helping to limit any potential damages they may take during games. Two weeks ago, Burrow was sacked 8 times; they followed that up with 5 more sacks this past Sunday night. Additionally, Philly pressured Niners starting QB Nick Mullen on 50% of his drop backs, a massive figure. They'll need that juice to carry over this week again and like it did the last time these two teams faced each other 4 years ago. It also must be said the Eagles need their talented defensive line to control the LOS to prohibit any Steelers rushing attack. Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, and Malik Jackson are all off to hot starts on the season. Newbie Javon Hargrave, making his first return trip to Pittsburgh this Sunday, had a slow start missing the first game of the season due to a training camp injury, but he has started to heat up the last two weeks. Derek Barnett had probably his best game one week ago and is looking to build off that as the season continues. If it does, then it'll look like Barnett has taken a long-awaited jump in play. Josh Sweat is starting to prove his own hot start isn't a fluke either. Genard Avery decided to throw his name into the ring last week getting multiple pressures and notching a sack and 5 QB hits against the 49ers Control the LOS and you can control the game. That has to happen again on Sunday if the Eagles want a chance to win.
Steelers bevy of Offensive Skill Position Players vs the Eagles Depleted Secondary
Last week, the Eagles did a great job containing the Niners outside receivers and predictably got obliterated by George Kittle. That last part isn't surprising since Kittle does that to everyone but the Eagles have already shown a total inability to defend TEs and the middle of the field on defense due to being completely devoid at talent at the LB position. Additionally, the Eagles struggle to really cover anyone since they don't have a member of the secondary that can consistently cover like Darius Slay. Granted, Jalen Mills had a decent game last week, but the Steelers offensive weapons are much deeper than the Niners. Dionte Johnson, Juju Smith-Schuster, Chase Claypool, and Eric Ebron will all be very difficult for the Eagles to defend as the game goes along. They each have different skill sets but what they all possess is an ability to consistently get open for Big Ben. We've also seen Juju, Dionte, and Claypool all create big plays after they catch the ball. The Eagles will have to come out with a gameplan to account for this and play disciplined enough to prohibit the big play. There is still a lot of room for error on the back half of this Eagles denese; if they can execute like they did this past Saturday night, that would help limit the potential damage.
Steelers Pass Rush vs The Eagles Revolving Door of Offensive Linemen
If there is one thing the Eagles prioritize more than anything in the draft and in free agency it's building a great offensive line with a lot of depth. This has been a pillar of the organization for over two decades and it has paid off for the Eagles the entire time. Few times in recent history has that philosophy been put to the test and stressed the team like it has so far in 2020. As it stands, the Eagles have, at best, a league-average offensive line and that's largely due to injury as they are currently missing their starting LT, RG, and LG. Sunday has a chance to be the 5th time in 5 weeks the Eagles will have a different starting offensive line combination if Lane Johnson can't go this week. Poor offensive line can cripple an offense. It can derail a passing attack if the offensive line can't keep the offense in a rhythm and keep the QB from being under duress. It forces coaches to give extra attention to the area which takes away from their ability to be creative when they need to leave an extra guy in to block. Additionally, constant OL shuffling and a degradation in talent can hinder a rushing attack since the players on the bottom end of the roster just can't execute at a high level the pillars of the offense. That's a situation the Eagles find themselves in on Sunday against one of the best defensive fronts in the NFL. The Eagles offensive line had their hands full against a Niners line that is still good despite its own major injury issues. At EDGE, the Steelers have a perennial DPOY candidate in TJ Watt to go along with a solid and athletic pass rusher in Bud Dupree. They also have stalwarts in the interior with Cameron Hayward and Stephon Tuitt. Long time NFL veteran Tyson Alualu, former 1st round pick of the Jaguars, has suddenly elevated his game and is off to the best start in his career as well. The defensive front is very disruptive when paired with their LBs who excel in both run support and on blitz in Devin Bush and Vince Williams. Steelers DC Keith Butler is creative with his looks and pressure packages while being blessed without the need to blitz constantly. Even if Lane Johnson starts he won't be 100% and that's a problem for the Eagles. A Lane Johnson at less than 100% is still better than most NFL tackles but it'll likely be taxing to the Eagles since the depth of talent the Steelers have across their defensive line. The Eagles are down to mostly nobodies on offense and really need to get creative to string together some plays to have a modestly effective offense. Even when Wentz is on his A-game, offensive execution will still require near 100% effectiveness just to have a chance. This is perhaps one of the biggest OL/DL mismatches in the NFL in week 5 and one the Eagles don't figure to have a ton of success. If they are able to control the line of scrimmage on offense more successfully than previous Steelers opponents, that would go a long way in pulling out a win.
Special thanks to MikeTysonChicken and abenyishay for their help in creating this Game Preview.
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Elephants on the Field: Week 2

Elephants

Winning at fantasy means making predictions and acting on them prior to other players. To do that, you don't always have the privileges of hindsight and deduction. You will need foresight and inference. I hope to offer a some good if not somewhat inferential arguments for why some early moves on this weekly (if I have time) post.
Fantasy thinking is often over-obsessed with statistical correlations at the expense of firm causal understanding of what is happening on the field. The forest is often lost for the trees. A combination of understanding the game of football, recognizing interconnected changes that will influence teams, and eye testing the games themselves is the best antidote to the groupthink, herd-mentality of fantasy football expertism which, time and again, proves spotty at best in anticipating changes.
Last week I posted this as "Eye-tested Takes" but I realized that's not what I was aiming for. A variety of posters and services watch the whole game and give you maximally thorough takes on every snap. I won't offer much of an opinion on players/teams I don't watch. I'll always watch enough. However, a lot of what I'll make as the case for picking up (or dropping) a player will be based on obvious things that are happening that rankings-myosis may miss.
There's always an elephant in the room that no one want's to acknowledge. This post gives fantasy advice that accounts for the elephants on the field.

Things I'm right about (so far):

1. Rivers Noodle Arm = Colts Lean into Jonathon Taylor:
With the quality of that offensive line, Mack going down, and Rivers looking like shit, Jonathon Taylor may end-up being a top-5 back this year. TY Hilton and Parris Campbell are going to disappoint you.
A bunch of commenters disagreed, insisting Hines was the guy to get and Taylor as a top-5 was nuts. This is an instance of the eye-test making people too smart. Yes, Taylor netted 22 yards on 9 carries week 1. Who cares, he was great in college (larger sample size) and more importantly, Rivers looks SOOO spent that Taylor is the only obvious bell-cow RB for what is probably the best O-line in the league. You want that. Rivers threw it 25 times in week two (down from 44). Taylor had 26 carries, 2 receptions, 110 yards, and 1 touchdown. It was obvious what had to happen in Indy but fantasy groupthink herded everyone toward Hines.
If you had the audacity to ignore me on this (/s), the good news is there's still time. His trade value has skyrocketed on most charts but he's not quite valued as a top back yet. If you get the feel someone is under-valuing him, don't wait longer because his first 2 TD game is going to make him inaccessible in a trade. The Colts defense is also looking good enough to maintain a lead throughout a game, opening-up more run play calls. (Rivers sucking is going to do that all the time anyway).
And if you still don't believe me, watch his highlights from this week and you'll see why he could be such a focal point. He does a lot of things that coaches like to lean-into: great ball security, adds 2-3 yards to the end of runs, explosive speed when he has big holes.
2.Browns Offense is fine:
Don't panic about the Browns offense. Baker Mayfield looked like trash but the running offense actually looked pretty good at times...Stefanski is the guy you need to believe in... The biggest takeway from the game isn't the Browns offense is bad, its that the Ravens defense is great.
Both Browns running back scored multiple TD's and registered more than 150 yards each week 2. Baker continued to suck and it didn't matter. Stefanski's offense is good and his coaching career is a testament to his talent. All-Ivy-League Football Player. First coaching job was in the NFL. They wouldn't let him leave for 14 years because they knew he was a talent.
So don't run from Chubb or Hunt yet. And if you have them both, start them both and don't feel bad (unless you have a clearly better option like Zeke too...then probably favor starting Kareem Hunt the larger your ppr value, but its a tough call). The Browns are a perfect storm that make both startable: (a) Both Chubb and Hunt have top-5 rb talent and it comes across when you watch them on the field. With good combinations of strength and speed, each one is TD risk on every snap. (b) Sefanski divides snaps very well. Both are getting touches-a-plenty. They just signed they're "back-up" RB to a new contract (I mean, how often does that happen in the modern NFL?). KS also divides snaps by drive, unless a drive gets very long, so even if Chubb is doing well, he's going to give Kareem Hunt a whole drive. (c) starting both is fading Baker which is smart. The Browns are going to increasingly realize that their offense is more effective with Baker doing less. They may even move to Case Keenum (their back-up, legit didn't know that last week) and that's fine for Chubb/Hunt.
I wouldn't run from OBJ or Jarvis Landry yet either, though Baker's ineptitude has got to make you worry. Think about what Minnesota offenses did over the years with Diggs, Theilen, etc. Both OBJ and Landry are going to be solid bets for big-play TD's (like OBJ's last Thursday) here and there but likely not breaking the top-10. Still, the talent ceiling is high with both so a buy-low scenario where you get them in a trade could pay-off if you bet on Stefanski more than Mayfield.
3. Deandre Hopkins is the WR1
Deandre Hopkins will be the #1 fantasy receiver this year... And most importantly, the offensive situation in Arizona is the perfect storm for his fantasy situation. Kyler Murray is good, but he's not working his way through progressions yet.
Hopkins nabbed a TD but only had 9 targets this week. I'll admit that I only watched Kyler Murray's highlights so forgive me if its there and I didn't see it, buuuuut...He's not completing passes to 2nd and 3rd reads. Its one read then run. That's great for Hopkins' stats because the further into the season they get, the MORE Hopkins is going to be involved on plays designed to chuck it to him, no matter what. Hopkins is one of those guys that's always open, and Kyler is a smart player who knows that AND knows he's not good enough yet to start looking for someone else if Hopkins is "covered". That may hurt the Cardinals at some point. But Hopkins is getting fed this season.
And obviously, a rash of injuries at WR has made this look to be a better prediction. Hopkins is already a stud in that offense and he's still learning it. His stock is only going up from here.
Its true the WR's new offenses typically do poorly. A couple of reasons why that's not true of Hopkins: (a) he's physically the most gifted receiver in the league. Randy Moss kicked ass his first year with the Patriots. Some players are talented enough that it doesn't take time, as long as they're smart as hell like Randy Moss or (b) Hopkins is an intelligent dude. He negotiated his own contract and didn't fuck it up. He wants to be G.M. Big brained guy, he'll pick up quickly. You can see that on the field, he's constantly looking back at Kyler to make sure he did the right thing on each play. (c) HOF'er in the WR room: Fitz will get him up to speed fast.
Quick note about Kyler Murray: He's tearing it up. One encouraging thing that you might not see how little he's allowing himself to be tackled. As a fantasy owner, that's encouraging because it suggests he can sustain a high running floor and not get injured. And there's an added assurance that he's putting those slides for zero yards (for example) on tape because the coaches see that too and are more willing to call more of those plays down the stretch. Still, I wouldn't compare him to Lamar Jackson last season yet. Lamar Jackson was throwing TD's to his 4th and 5th read in week 1 against the Dolphins last season. Murray may hit a scheme ceiling where defenses, especially good ones, start to take away his 1 and 2 and contain his run game (though it is strong and he has good vision).

Things I was totally wrong about: zero things!

HA! Next section!

Things I'm not right about yet but pretty soon I will be:

1. Joe Burrow AJ Green is going to be good.
If you watch the game, you see Joe Burrow fitting the ball into tight windows in clutch situations. In fact, he wasn't finding a lot of open receivers, he was throwing the ball well/correctly into great coverage and making lemonade. Also, AJ Green is looking fully healthy and like his old self.
Well, AJ Green was targeted 13 times and caught...3 of those passes for 29 yards. So clearly, the chemistry between them was oversold by me last week. Still, 13 targets is encouraging and so is the Bengals inability to run the ball. No matter how much they try, they're wretched run-blocking always leaves them down late in games and in 3rd-and-forever situations. They just let a rookie throw it 61 times.
Another consideration is that Denzel Ward was covering Green all night:
A.J. Green has had an up-and-down career vs. the Browns. Thursday’s game was on the down side, and it had mostly to do with Denzel Ward.
Green had three catches for 29 yards. Overall, Ward broke up three passes against the Bengals. And according to Next Gen Stats, Ward was making life difficult for Joe Burrow all night, forcing eight tight window passes in 11 targets as the nearest defender.
Green is still pretty low on trade value charts but stands to have a huge upside as Burrow's primary target.
2. Rodgers is back.
...are there really any physical traits that are important to his game that would fade significantly at 36 year's old? I didn't see any missing zip off of his throws. I did see fucking darts getting tossed all over the field into tiny windows.
Aaron Jones is the #1 fantasy RB right now so obviously saying Rodgers is fully back is pre-mature. However, he is impressing with some very, very pretty darts.
Also, the elephant on the field for the Packers is that Aaron Rodgers is a player driven by ego. Not a knock on him, he's just a guy who needs mojo to play at his finest. Maybe it required the stimulation of an insulting draft pick to prod him back into his HOF form. I'm not saying Rodgers can be a top 3 QB this year with Jackson and Murray running so well, but 4 or 5 doesn't seem out of reach.
Rodgers is pff top-graded QB right now btw.

Fresh takes:

1.The Ravens are the best defense in the NFL.
The loss of Earl Thomas is doesn't matter as much as what has been gained with Patrick Queen and L.J. Fort. Queen is incredibly fast and explosive underneath, getting into the backfield and making big plays. And L.J. Fort (top rated pff lb right now) combine to give them rangey-coverage, tackling, and pass break-up ability over the middle they didn't have before which has further weaponized they're depth at CB (Humphrey, Peters, Smith). Peters specifically is a ball hawk that's found a great home in Baltimore; he couldn't scheme well anywhere else but Harbaugh has found a way to give him the freedom to ball hawk. Over the long haul, Harbaugh has maintained a great defense, regardless of departures/changes, for years and years. When he has this much talent, his defenses are typically dominant.
Be warry of starting iffy players against them at any position.
They're worth trading for, I think the turnovedef TD potential makes them worth it.
2. J.K. Dobbins will break-out out as the preferred option in the Ravens backfield.
Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards have both proven to be reliable RB's for the Raven offense. But Ingram is 30 with over 200 carries in 3 of the last 4 seasons. Edwards has been reliable, a home-grown UDFA. But at 238lbs and without elite speed, he's leaving many big runs on the table.
Dobbins didn't attend the combine. But ran a 4.44 40...in high school:
Dobbins posted a 4.44s 40-yard dash, 4.09s short shuttle and a 43.1-inch vertical jump as a high school senior at the event. There are also many reports that Dobbins squatted over 700 pounds.
He has power running balance and break-out speed that NONE of the other backs in Baltimore have. 4th rounder Justice Hill was their attempt of to develop that speed last year but didn't break out.
A couple of elephants make this one a good bet:
(a) Lamar's durability -- right now, he's taking a bunch of carries because he's the only one in their backfield that has the speed to break huge runs. If Dobbins can fill that role, Lamar Jackson can afford to take fewer chances and John Harbaugh can opt to only drop him back to pass 7 times in the second half when they're winning, like what happened in week 2.
(b) that defense -- Baltimore's defense is going to be great enough this year to take over games, making steady doses of run plays inevitable as they'll spend a lot of games up by 2 scores. Yes, they were up like that a lot last year but their only homerun hitter in the backfield was Lamar (see above, Justice Hill wasn't getting it done).
Here's an example: this is a shot from Gus Edwards' 22 yard scamper last week:

https://preview.redd.it/mhhhpzmkrxo51.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=3cdf46ac4bcce3e503729f909c0e787f85459eb9
The Ravens offensive line is good at opening holes like this. While it didn't prove important in this game (BAL was up 30-16 at the time), each run like this where a more explosive player could scored is an opportunity cost for the people calling plays. And its not just points left behind, its points scored while Lamar is watching like a fan. Its points that could allow more aggressive defensive play calling. If you're a coach for Baltimore, you don't necessarily want Lamar to have a gaudy stat-line every week if you're winning. If he can throw 16 passes in a game and then sit-out the 4th quarter, that's ideal from the franchise's perspective (though not so much for Fantasy managers). Each Ingram/Edwards run that coulda been a touchdown means there's more time on the field for Lamar, larger portion of the game where they're not playing a dominant lead, and higher chance that they'll lose because points were left on the field. They need someone else hitting home runs in the running game.
Am I fading Lamar because of all of this? Not yet. Eye test = that guy is a singular talent. His throwing motion is smooth like Vick's, just a gifted, effortless release. He's also great at mostly avoiding contact (though all contact is bad contact if you're his coaches). Great decision maker too. Makes multiple reads on plays. Can't say enough about how great of player he is. Still, Baltimore is well put-together enough that they may be able to functionally win without him. So don't be surprised if, especially approaching the playoffs, Baltimore starts calling plays that don't involve as much Lamar. What's scary is that they may be a complete football team without him and he's the reigning MVP.
Finally, Dobbins had two carries last week. One was for a 44 yard gain where the blocking was good but not nearly as good as the image above. Even if the transition to him isn't fast, he could force the issue like Chubb did his rookie year, gaining 100 yards on 3 carries in a game.
No matter what, the Ravens will run by committee but there will come a point where the player to start out of the trio is Dobbins without a doubt.
3. Minshew is the truth and his team situation makes him a great fantasy player.
Minshew isn't the most talented QB in the league. But above all things, he is competitive and scrappy. The Jags are good but not great so he's going need a lot of that scrappy-iness (lol, just say that sentence out loud, you'll hear it). James Robinson is very good and they're going to lean on him a lot. But when the time for much needed yards and points, it seems like the Jags tag Gardner Minshew II's Id in at offensive coordinator. Minshew isn't likely going to be top-5 qb but he might make the top 10 and is likely easier to get than other top targets.
Part of the reason DJ Chark isn't getting the production folks hoped is because Minshew is effectively spreading the ball around. Good for the jags, bad for fantasy owners. I wouldn't panic.
One of his targets I picked-up to stash is Laviska Shenault Jr. He's getting a legit number of carries each week and averaging over 10 yards per reception. He's an interesting pick-up because he doubles as handcuffs for Robinson. Seems like his carry count could go up to 10ish no problem if the Jags lost Robinson. So pay attention to what position he's listed in your league, scoring rules about how carries count in ppr, etc. But he passes the eye test, very shifty and fast on the field.
4. Teams that are quickly turning into dumpster fires that you should across-the-board fade:
Jets
Gase is the worst. Never underestimate the ability of a shitty boss to ruin a workspace and make everyone fucking hate themselves, even though they're well compensated to play a game for a living. Listen, I know there's always gems on bad teams. But I have high blood pressure. So tuning into games with players I need to play well and watching the offense go 3-and-out 5 times in a row...I'm literally too old for that shit now so I try to stray-away from dumpster fire teams.
Vikings
Kubiak has got some big Stefanski shoes to fill and he's doing a bad job so far. I wouldn't panic about Dalvin Cook yet but another bad couple of weeks and I'd start shopping him. See the Browns thing above: Stefanski may have made the Vikings offense look better than it actually was for a decade. Combine that with the defense whose secondary would be better if they were scare crows and you're looking at a team that can't plan to run the ball for more than a quarter or 2.
Teams to be worried about:
Broncos
Whew, the injuries. They're basically just starting with new team. We'll see how things go.
Detroit
Matt Patricia may have lost this team. And coaches like him don't recover team faith/confidence well in a loss-spiral.
Texans
BoB is going to crash that plane into a mountain while we all watch. Poor Watson, just watching Deandre Hopkins ball-out. One thing you can still bet on for awhile out of the Texans offense; Bill O'Brien is ego- and career-invested in David Johnson doing great things. He'll role with him when he shouldn't to prove to everyone that he was right to trade Nuk. Its dumb. But he's dumb.

Fortune Favors The Bold (FFTB) Predictions

WARNING: What you're about to read is not necessarily good fantasy advice, but things for me to say "told you so" about a week from now. I take no responsibility for any money you lose (and all responsibility for the money you win). Still, Alexander the Great said, Fortune Favors the Bold.
  1. JK Dobbins scores more fantasy points than CEH this week. (This prediction is backed-up by the time-honored tradition of spitting in one's hand and shaking on it so this shit is serious. Its also painful because I'm a Chiefs fan.)
  2. Laviska Shenault scores a running and a receiving touchdown tonight.
  3. Jonathon Taylor is the RB1 this week and its not close.
  4. Danny Dimes throws 3 TD's this week against the 49ers.
I'm probably wrong about most of this shit but FORTUNE FAVORS THE BOLD!


Thanks for reading! If I continue to be kind mostly right and people find it a good read, I'll keep posting these each week. Good luck!

EDIT: Thanks for the awards and upvotes strangers! I'll bring the column back next week. Appreciate the comments too, thanks for the banter, shit-talk, and criticism. I'll be spittin in palms again soon.
EDIT AGAIN: Thanks again for the feedback. This is fun and I'm going to enjoy doing it again next week. Some of the comments have suggested that the post doesn't really go out on many limbs. I'll do that more in the future. I've also added an extra section with a few "FFTB predictions" for this week.
submitted by atrophiedambitions to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]

[Game Preview] Week 1 - Philadelphia Eagles(0-0) at Washington Football Team (0-0)

Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at the Washington Football Team
The 2020 Philadelphia Eagles season is the franchise's 88th season in the National Football League and the fifth under head coach Doug Pederson. The Eagles will try to improve on their 9–7 record from 2019 where they made the playoffs, but lost in the NFC Divisional game against the Seattle Seahawks. They will begin that journey Sunday afternoon as they take a trip down 95 to face off against the division rival with a new name Washington Football Team. To go with the name they also have a new coach in Ron Rivera who is looking for a fresh start after spending the last nine years as the Head Coach of the Carolina Panthers. Rivera inherits a defense that has 4 first round picks on the defensive line that will be facing off against an injury riddled offensive line of the Eagles as they will be without starting LT Andre Dillard and starting All-Pro RG Brandon Brooks. The Eagles bought back former LT Jason Peters who will look to protect Carson Wentz’s blind side. IF the Eagles OL is able to give Wentz time, he proved last year against the WTF that he has great chemistry with Jackson who has torched his former team in the past. Defensively Eagles fans will get their first look at their revamped secondary which will include Pro Bowler Darius Slay and Jalen Mills at safety. They will look to keep Terry McLaurin under control as he burnt the Eagles secondary in both games last season with long TDs. If the Eagles can get a lead early, I think their defense should be able to keep Dwayne Haskins under control and force the second year QB into some turnovers. Always fun to start the season vs a division rival and happy to have some football again in these crazy times. Go Birds!
General Information
Posting Rules and Guidelines
Remember to join us on Discord during the game!
New to the Eagles? Take a look at our New Fan Page!
Score Prediction Contest
Date
Sunday, September 13th, 2020
Game Time Game Location
1:00 PM - Eastern FedEx Field
12:00 PM - Central 1600 FedEx Way
11:00 AM - Mountain Landover, MD 20785
10:00 AM - Pacific Wikipedia - Map
Weather Forecast
Stadium Type: Open Air
Surface: Grass
Temperature: 77°F
Feels Like: 79°F
Forecast: Mostly Cloudy. Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day.
Chance of Precipitation: 5%
Cloud Coverage: 69%
Wind: South 6 MPH
Betting Odds
Oddsshark Information
Favorite/Opening Line: Philadelphia by -5.5
OveUnder: 42.5
Record VS. Spread: Philadelphia 0-0, Washington 0-0
Where to Watch on TV
FOX will broadcast Sunday’s game to a regional audience. Kevin Burkhardt will handle the play-by-play duties and Daryl Johnson will provide analysis. Pam Oliver will report from the sideline.
TV Map - Week 1 TV Coverage Map
Radio Streams
List of Eagles Radio network member stations with internet broadcast availability
Radio.com 94.1 Desktop Streaming
Listen to Merrill Reese and Mike Quick
Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (44th season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.
Location Station Frequency
Philadelphia, PA WIP-FM 94.1 FM and 610 AM
Allentown, PA WCTO-FM 96.1 FM
Atlantic City/South Jersey WENJ-FM 97.3 FM
Levittown, PA WBCB-AM 1490 AM
Northumberland, PA WEGH-FM 107.3 FM
Pottsville, PA WPPA-AM 1360 AM
Reading, PA WEEU-AM 830 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WAFL-FM 97.7 FM
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA WEJL-FM 96.1 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WAFL-FM 97.7 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WEJL-AM 630 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WBAX-AM 1240 AM
Williamsport, PA WBZD-FM 93.3 FM
Wilmington, DE WDEL-FM/AM 101.7 FM
York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA WSOX-FM 96.1 FM
Philadelphia Spanish Radio
Rickie Ricardo, Macu Berral and Gus Salazar will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.
Location Station Frequency
Philadelphia, PA LA MEGA 105.7 FM
Allentown, PA WSAN 1470 AM
Atlantic City, NJ WIBG 1020 AM; 101.3 FM
Football Team Radio
Washington Football Team Radio Network Larry Michael (play-by-play), Chris Cooley (analysis), Rick “Doc” Walker (sidelines).
National Radio
NA.
Satellite Radio
Station Eagles Channel Football Team Channel
Sirius Radio SIRI 105 (Streaming 825) SIRI 81 (Streaming 831)
XM Radio XM Streaming 825 XM 226 (Streaming 831)
Sirius XM Radio SXM 380 (Streaming 825) SXM 226 (Streaming 831)
Eagles Social Media Football Team Social Media
Website Website
Facebook Facebook
Twitter Twitter
Instagram Instagram
Snapchat: Eagles Snapchat: WashingtonNFL
NFC East Standings
NFC EAST Record PCT Home Road Div Conf PF PA Net Pts Streak
Eagles 0-0 .000 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 NA
Cowboys 0-0 .000 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 NA
Football Team 0-0 .000 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 NA
Giants 0-0 .000 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 NA
Series Information
The Washington Football lead the Philadelphia Eagles (85-80-6)
Series History
Head to Head Box Scores
First Game Played
October 21st, 1934 at Fenway Park in Boston, MA. Boston Redskins 6 - Philadelphia Eagles 0
Points Leader
The Philadelphia Eagles lead the Washington Football Team (3591-3386)
Coaches Record
Doug Pederson: 6-2 against the Washington Football Team
Ron Rivera: 3-2 against Eagles
Coaches Head to Head
Doug Pederson vs Ron Rivera: Tied 1-1
Quarterback Record
Carson Wentz: Against the Washington Football Team: 5-2
Dwayne Haskins Jr.: Against Eagles: 0-1
Quarterbacks Head to Head
Carson Wentz vs Dwayne Haskins Jr.: Wentz leads 1-0
Records per Stadium
Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Eagles lead the Washington Football Team: 10-7
Record @ FedEx Field: Eagles lead the Washington Football Team: 14-6
Rankings and Last Meeting Information
AP Pro 32 Ranking
Eagles No. 11 - Football Team No. 30
Record
Eagles: 0-0
Football Team: 0-0
Last Meeting and Last Meeting at Site
Sunday, December 30th, 2018
Eagles 37 - Washington Football Team 27
The Eagles looked to keep their playoff hopes alive and and opened up the scoring with a Jake Elliot FG in the first quarter. The lead was short lived as Dwayne Haskins hooked up with Terry McLaurin for a 75 yard touchdown pass. The Eagles went into half-time trailing 10-14, but took back the lead in the 3rd quarter on a Miles Sanders TD reception that put the Eagles up 17-14. The Eagles and Washington Football Team traded TD passes in the 4th quarter before the Washington Football Team regained the league with a pair of Dustin Hopkins FGs put the Washington Football Team's up 24-27. Carson Wentz answered the call leading the Eagles on a four and half minute 75 yard touchdown drive that culminated in a Greg Ward TD reception. The Eagles defense forced a fumble on the ensuing drive which was returned for a TD by Nigel Bradham for a nail in the coffin putting the Eagles up 10 with no time on the clock to give the Eagles the win.
Click here to view the Video Recap
Click here to view the Stats Recap
Last 10 Meetings
Date Winner Loser Score
12/15/2019 Eagles Football Team 37-27
09/08/2019 Eagles Football Team 32-27
12/30/2018 Eagles Football Team 24-0
12/3/2018 Eagles Football Team 28-13
10/23/2017 Eagles Football Team 34-24
9/10/2017 Eagles Football Team 30-17
12/11/2016 Football Team Eagles 27-22
10/16/2016 Football Team Eagles 27-20
12/26/2015 Football Team Eagles 38-24
10/04/2015 Football Team Eagles 23-20
12/20/2014 Football Team Eagles 27-24
09/21/2014 Eagles Football Team 37-34
Injury Reports Depth Charts
Eagles Eagles
Football Team Football Team
2020 “Expert” Picks
Week 1 - "Expert" Picks
2019 Team Stats
Eagles Season Stats
Football Team Season Stats
2019 Stats (Starters/Leaders)
Passing
Name CMP ATT PCT YDS TD INT RAT
Wentz 388 607 63.9% 4037 27 7 93.1
Haskins 119 203 58.6% 1365 7 7 76.1
Rushing
Name ATT YDS YDS/G AVG TD
Sanders 179 818 51.1 4.6 3
Peterson 211 898 59.9 4.3 5
Receiving
Name REC YDS YDS/G AVG TD
Ertz 88 916 61.1 10.4 6
McLaurin 58 919 65.6 15.8 7
Sacks
Name Sacks Team Total
Graham 8.5 43
Ioannidis 8.5 46
Tackles
Name Total Solo Assist Sacks
Jenkins 80 62 18 2.5
Collins 117 78 39 1.0
Interceptions
Name Ints Team Total
Gerry/Jones/Darby/McLeod 2 11
Dunbar 4 13
Punting
Name ATT YDS LONG AVG NET IN 20 TB BP
Johnston 71 3292 61 46.4 42.3 28 4 0
Way 79 3919 79 49.6 44.1 30 4 0
Kicking
Name ATT MADE % LONG PAT
Elliot 26 22 94.6% 53 35/37
Hopkins 30 35 83.3% 53 21/22
Kick Returns
Name ATT YDS AVG LONG TD
Sanders 14 314 22.4 67 0
Simms 32 819 25.6 1
Punt Returns
Name RET YDS AVG LONG TD FC
Scott 6 43 7.2 13 0 4
Quinn 16 78 4.9 15 0 9
League Rankings 2019
Offense Rankings
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Football Team Stat Football Team Rank
Total Offense 360.8 14th 274.7 31st
Rush Offense 121.2 11th 98.9 22nd
Pass Offense 239.6 11th 175.8 32nd
Points Per Game 24.1 12th 16.6 32nd
3rd-Down Offense 45.4% 4th 29.1% 32nd
4th-Down Offense 33.3% 28th(t) 42.9% 22nd
Red Zone Offense (TD%) 66.7% 3rd 48.8% 27th
Defense Rankings
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Football Team Stat Football Team Rank
Total Defense 331.7 10th 385.6 27th
Rush Defense 90.1 3rd 146.6 31st
Pass Defense 241.6 19th 238.9 18th
Points Per Game 22.1 15th 27.2 27th
3rd-Down Defense 34.2% 4th 48.9% 32nd
4th-Down Defense 61.1% 27th 63.2% 22nd
Red Zone Defense (TD%) 55.8% 14th(t) 61.0% 27th
Team
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Football Team Stat Football Team Rank
Turnover Diff. -3 22nd +1 13th(t)
Penalty Per Game 6.8 9th(t) 6.6 14th(t)
Penalty Yards Per Game 52.3 9th 52.2 8th
Recap from Last Week’s Games.
Eagles - N/A
Washington - N/A
Connections
Washington Football Team’s HC Ron Rivera was the Eagles linebackers coach from 1999-2003.
Washington Football Team’s QB coach Ken Zampese worked as an offensive assistant for the Eagles in 1998.
Washington Footbal Team’s CB Ronald Darby played the previous 3 seasons with the Eagles.
Eagles LS Rick Lovato briefly signed with the Washington Football Team during the 2016 season for two weeks.
Eagles WR Desean Jackson spent 3 seasons with the Washington Football Team (2016-2018) after he was released from the Eagles.
Eagles backup QB Nate Sudfeld was drafted by the Washington Football team in the 6th round of the 2016 NFL draft and played one season for them before being cut in 2017.
Eagles backup TE Richard Rodgers was signed with the Washington Football Team this past offseason before being released Sept. 5th and signing with the Eagles.
2020 Pro Bowlers
Eagles Football Team
DT Fletcher Cox (Starter) P Tress Way (Starter)
OG Brandon Brooks (Starter) G Brandon Scherff
C Jason Kelce (Starter)
LS Rick Lovato (Starter)
TE Zach Ertz
SS Malcom Jenkings (1st Alt)
OT Lane Johnson (1st Alt
General
Referee: Brad Rogers
The Eagles have won each of their last 6 games vs. Washington, marking their longest such streak since 12/16/01-12/12/04 (7 games). Philadelphia is 14-9 (.609) all-time at FedExField.
Carson Wentz has posted a 5-0 record vs. Washington since 2017, completing 128-of-185 (69.2%) attempts for 1,460 yards (292.0 per game), 14 TDs, 3 INTs and a 111.1 passer rating.
Fletcher Cox has 12.5 sacks in 16 career games vs. Washington, which are his most against any NFL team and the most by any NFL player vs. Washington since 2012. Only four players have more sacks vs. Washington since 1982: Lawrence Taylor (19.0, 1982-93), Michael Strahan (17.0, 1994-2007), Justin Tuck (15.0, 2005-13) and Simeon Rice (14.0, 1996-2005).
The Eagles have won 8 of their last 9 season openers, which are the most opening day victories in the NFL since 2011.
Philadelphia is 4-0 in season openers under head coach Doug Pederson (since 2016). Pederson is one of two head coaches in team history to win 4 straight season-opening contests, join-ing Greasy Neale (6, 1942-47). The Eagles are one of only five NFL teams to start the season 1-0 in each of the last four years, joining Baltimore, Green Bay, Kansas City and Minnesota.
Draft Picks
Eagles Football Team
WR Jalen Raegor DE Chase Young
QB Jalen Hurts RB Antonio Gibson
LB Davion Taylor OT Saahdiq Charles
S K’Von Wallace WR Antonio Gandy-Golden
OT Jack Driscoll C Keith Ismael
WR John Hightower LB Khaleke Hudson
LB Shaun Bradley S Curl Kamren
WR Quez Watkins DE James Smith-Williams
OT Prince Tega Wanogho
LB/DE Casey Toohill
Notable Off-season Additions
Eagles Football Team
S Will Parks QB Kyle Allen
DT Javon Hargrave CB Ronald DArby
CB Nickell Robey-Coleman LB Thomas Davis
CB Darius Slay RB Peyton Barber
S Sean Davis
WR Cody Latimer
CB Kendell Fuller
RB JD McKissic
G Wes Schweitzer
Notable Off-season Departures
Eagles Football Team
S Malcom Jenkins QB Case Keenum
CB Ronald Darby CB Josh Norman
RB Jordan Howard CB Quinton Dunbar
WR Nelson Agholor TE Vernon Davis
OL Halapoulivaati Vaitai WR Paul Richardson
LB Kamu Grugler-Hill TE Jordan Reed
RB Darren Sproles OT Donald Penn
DT Timmy Jernigan CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
LB Nigel Bradham CB Kayvon Weber
G Ereck Flowers
LT Trent Williams
Milestones
Eagles QB Carson Wentz (97) needs 3 passing TDs for 100 career passing TDs.
Eagles TE Zach Ertz (35) needs 1 TDs to move up to 7th on the Eagles all-time receiving TD list all-time tying WR Jeremy Maclin
Eagles WR Desean Jackson (6276) needs 192 yards to move up to 3rd on the Eagles all-time receiving yards list all-time passing his mentor WR *Mike Quick
Eagles WR Desean Jackson (34) needs 2 TDs to move into a tie for 7th on the Eagles all-time receiving TD list tying WR Jeremy Maclin
Eagles DE Brandon Graham (51) needs 3.5 sacks to move to 4th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DE Hugh Douglas
Eagles DT Fletcher Cox (48) needs 2.5 sacks to move up to 6th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DE Greg Brown
Eagles DE Vinny Curry (27) needs 1 sack to move up to 19th on the Eagles all-time sack list passing DT Darwin Walker
Washington Football Team OLB Ryan Kerrigan (90) needs 1.5 sacks to become the Washington Football Team's all-time leader in sacks passing Dexter Manley (91).
Pro Football Focus Matchup Charts courtesy of PFF Edge (join.profootballfocus.com/edge/)
WDB Matchups (CAPS = expected shadow coverage)
PFF Stats to Know
Play Action Passing
[Threshold = QBs with at least 20% snap count of the QB with the highest snap count of Play Action for the season] In the 2019-2020 season, no QB had a worse completion rate via Play Action than WFT’s Dwayne Haskins at 54.9% and only 2 others had worse such Passer Rating. For comparison, the Eagles’ Carson Wentz was at the top of the bottom 3rd in both metrics. Whereas has Wentz fared near the top of Play Action % of snaps during his NFL tenure and his completion % and Passer Rating have both ranked near the top in each of ‘16-‘18, in 2019 he did not do well in that respect. How Wentz performs in Play Action with injuries at the OL and WR positions, as well as how much the coaching staff will even ask him to turn his back to this particular DL and keep it...I’m not sure.
Matchups to Watch
Washington Defensive Line vs Eagles Offensive Line
NFL battles always start in the trenches and this is perhaps the biggest advantage the WFT has against the Eagles in this Week 1 tilt. Washington always had a formidable front that lead to intriguing battles between the two teams but the addition of Chase Young and the injuries the Eagles have already sustained make this match up concerning for Philly. The Eagles projected Week 1 starting OL prior to the injuries was, from left to right: Dillard, Seumalo, Kelce, Brooks, and Lane Johnson. Now, the Eagles will start: Peters, Seumalo, Kelce, TBD, TBD. Lane Johnson has practiced everyday this week in a limited capacity which makes me believe that he'll start but it's an uneasy feeling knowing he's working his way back from injury too. The logical guess at RG is Matt Pryor, but they've also tried out Nate Herbig in practice. Either way, the Eagles have a massive downgrade at RG with Brandon Brooks out. Fortunately, the Eagles may have accidentally upgraded in the short term with Jason Peters at LT but the depth in the trenches is already spread too thin. The Eagles are lucky to be as deep as they are on the OL given they aren't totally screwed (yet) but the current state of line makes this a very formidable match up for the Football Team (get a damn team name, jerks) to take advantage of. Additionally, they aren't just deep at EDGE, they are deep at DT as well. Payne, Allen, and Ioannidis are very stout and capable of dominating opposing OLs. Washington's roster is very thin but it isn't on the defensive line. They have more than enough ammunition to put the Eagles in difficult situations. This mismatch will force the coaching staff to be creative in their run designs and how they give help to the OL in pass protection.
Washington Secondary vs Eagles Passing Attack
The Eagles much beleaguered WR room went through a mini-makeover in the offseason and a lot of new, young, and fast faces were added to the mix. What they lack in proven talent, outside of DeSean Jackson's return, they make up for in athleticism. One thing Howie Roseman said this offseason was he was frustrated with the lack of speed on the team. It took him a while to understand that athleticism does matter. It's not just that the new group of receivers are fast, but they all have strong overall athletic profiles. But as previously mentioned, this is an unproven group going up against a very weak opposition. WFT brought back Kendall Fuller this offseason, who was a real good jack-of-all-trades player in the secondary for the Chiefs last season. His status for Sunday is questionable given his limited participation this week in practice. Opposite him is former Eagles favorite Ronald Darby. If I'm Doug Pederson, I make it a point to go after him all day. Even when Darby is at his best, which isn't often these days, he has absolutely zero ball skills. Washington may play Fabian Moreau if Fuller can't go, which is another defender the Eagles should target. Jimmy Moreland and Landon Collins are quality players, more so the latter, but they can't hide the deficiencies that should be easily exploitable by the Eagles. Remember, Philly put up over 30 in week 15 last year with less in the WR room than they currently have against a secondary that really isn't better than it was then. If Jalen Reagor is able to go, that would add another dimension to this offense the Eagles have lacked for a long time. If the Eagles can do a good enough job slowing down Washington's front, they are more than capable of picking apart a subpar secondary. And I didn't even talk about Ertz and Goedert! Or Miles Sanders through the air!
Washington Offensive Line vs Eagles Defensive Line
Despite the current injury limitations on the Eagles defensive line, this is a matchup that heavily favors the Eagles. Haskins finished 2019 on a positive note in his last 3 starts prior to his ankle injury; one thing he's never been known for is his pocket ability and ability to avoid taking sacks. Put a statue behind a bad offensive line and you are going to have issues. Trent Williams is now gone having finally forced his way out and his logical replacement, rookie Shaadiq Charles, isn't likely to play in week 1. Wes Martin, their starting left guard, is a below average player himself. The only player on the Washington Football Team's offensive line that is good is Brandon Scherff. While the Eagles aren't 100% on the defensive line, they are one of the few teams in the NFL with likely more talent and depth on their defensive line than the Washington Football Team's. Barnett has been limited in practice and has missed the last few weeks with another injury and his status is questionable while Hargrave is likely to miss a couple games as well. The Eagles still have Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, the return of Malik Jackson, and a lot more to throw at this beleaguered unit. Additionally, this is a defensive front that is always stingy against the run under Jim Schwartz even when the DL isn't at peak health. There are a lot of matchups to exploit and Schwartz has a lot of options to exploit them. For his faults as a coordinator with secondary scheming, Schwartz is a God at maximizing the talents of his pass rushers. Given the current state of the Washington OL and Haskins own difficulties under pressure, this is a juicy match up for Philly.
Washington Passing Attack vs Eagles Pass Defense
Washington is incredibly thin and young at the skill positions but that isn't the sort of thing that has deterred the Eagles from allowing big plays in the past. This is a secondary, and really a pass defense in general, that went through a major shake up this offseason and for good reason. The Eagles defense was pretty average per DVOA which was encouraging given what they had, but they consistently allowed big play after big play in 2019. Opposing WR1s absolutely shredded Philadelphia last season as they were automatic monsters against an overmatched, elementary secondary. Darius Slay and NRC were added to the mix and should provide immediate help to this unit. Avonte Maddox will start at CB2; while this is an iffy move, the additions of Slay and NRC should allow the Eagles to help him out a bunch. The Eagles finally have players that can play in man coverage and one of the best CBs in the league in shadow coverage. Schwartz has admitted that he will allow Slay to shadow receivers but likely not 100% of the time. This makes sense as it should be a matchup-specific thing... this is that time. Furthermore, allowing Slay to shadow receivers will lead to considerable scheme changes on defense as they can't play the coverages they've played the last four years while shadowing receivers. What does this look like and how quickly does it come together? Terry McLaurin is the only real commodity at receiver for Washington and he's a tremendous talent. Even when he was the only real receiving threat last year, he still tore the Eagles apart. Another major change for the Eagles is in the safety room with the departure of Malcolm Jenkins. The Eagles added Will Parks to the room but he will miss the first 3 weeks due to injury. They also retained Rodney McLeod; this could be a good thing or bad thing depending on which Rodney shows up. If another year away from knee surgery helps, then he'll be fine. But if last year's version shows up then the Eagles have a big problem. Lastly, the Eagles will be starting Jalen Mills at safety. Apparently, the cure for being a bad cornerback is a position switch to safety despite never playing it in the NFL. All that being said, the middle of the defense is slower and more unknown than it has ever been. LB1 is Nate Gerry. LB2 is Duke Riley. Mills is the new Jenkins. Will Parks is out. Does McLeod have enough left in the tank? Offenses are fast and innovative; the Skins lack a lot of talent on offense but their new offensive scheme could lead to some issues in the middle of the Eagles defense. If I'm Washington, I lean heavily on motions and play action to confuse the middle of the Eagles defense. Get guys who struggle to cover to cover your athletic RBs then take plenty of shots to Terry McLaurin. The Eagles are clearly better at CB than they've been in years but have considerable question marks in the Safety and in the LB rooms as it pertains to pass defense. Better CBs should lead to better pass defense overall but there are matchups to take advantage of. Washington might not be the best team to fully exploit these weaknesses, but they could.
Special thanks to MikeTysonChicken and abenyishay for their help in creating this Game Preview.
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